Global cocoa prices have spiked to a near 50-year high due to three years of poor harvests.

Inputs that matter: Prices convey information; the more significant the change, the more impactful the cause.

• NPR explains, "Cocoa's troubles stem from extreme weather in West Africa."

• According to the Washington Post, "Ivory Coast farmers receive meager payments from the government for their crop and lack the incentive to invest in fertilizer and pesticides."

• The supply is expected to be less next year, and most candy makers will be unable to raise prices due to inflation resistance.

• Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, expects shrinkflation to happen with smaller and smaller candy bars sold.

The opportunity: Two-thirds of the cocoa produced is grown on Africa's West Coast.

• The U.S. and U.K. are conducting targeted strikes in Yemen that are slowing shipping from the region.

• The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) explains that the Red Sea crisis significantly drives up inflated prices.

Zoom in: West African cocoa trees are at the end of their lives, explains Nana Arofi Koram, owner of a cocoa plantation.

• The youngest trees on active plantations are 30 years old, most planted in the 1960s and 1970s.

• According to the Financial Times, "As trees age, they become less productive and more vulnerable to disease and adverse weather events."

• The swollen shoot virus has already spread. The only remedy is to remove the infected trees.

• Black pod disease, a fungal infection that rots cocoa pods, thrives in the tropical humidity created by excessive rainfall this year.

Between the lines: With severe weather conditions, aging trees, and a region in crisis, it may be the end of West Africa's dominance of the cocoa trade.

• Ecuador was the previous leader in global cocoa supplies until the blight, frosty pod rot, ravaged the crop in 1916.

• The European Union is trying to ban the sale of commodities grown due to deforestation, such as on Africa's West Coast.

Follow the money: The Financial Times reports that the largest cocoa buyers are purchasing futures further out to secure their share for the years ahead.

• This massive future demand will result in someone fulfilling those contracts.

• Jerry Toth, the co-founder of U.S. To'ak Chocolate, has joined with more than 30 Ecuador families to reforest their lands from seedlings of nearly extinct cocoa trees.

• Toth explains, "I do with chocolate what wine has been doing to grapes for a long time."

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