Banananomics: Evolving Policies For Space

The moon is an excellent place to influence or even dominate Earth; however, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits military activities on celestial bodies.

Inputs that matter: Geopolitical Futures explains, "He who controls the moon controls Earth."

• "Given current technologies, the relative distance between Portugal and Brazil and between the moon and Portugal is not wildly different."

• This week, the White House officially tasked NASA with establishing a time standard for the moon, Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC), in the Office of the President's memorandum. This standard will allow international bodies to coordinate their activities on the lunar surface.

• The New York Times reports that The United States and China are locked in a new race over Global positioning satellites that serve as clocks in the sky.

The opportunity: The United States, Russia, and over 100 other states are parties to the Outer Space Treaty (OST), which remains in force and can be understood as a de facto constitution for space operations.

• However, it only applies to countries and not private companies.

• As a result, the United States may be legally liable for the activities of services such as Starlink, a U.S. commercial satellite operated by SpaceX.

Zoom in: The 1967 OST bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in outer space, prohibits military activities on celestial bodies, and details legally binding rules governing the peaceful exploration and use of space, including:

• Space and celestial bodies are exempt from national claims of ownership.

• Countries exploring space are responsible and liable for any damage their activities may cause.

• Countries may not place in orbit around the Earth or other celestial bodies any nuclear weapons or objects carrying WMD.

• Neither can they install WMD on celestial bodies or station WMD in outer space in any other manner.

Between the lines: On March 8, a small, cylinder-shaped object fell from the skies and crashed through the roof of a family home in Naples, Florida.

• As the 1967 OST dictates, space objects' ownership does not change regardless of whether they are in outer space or on Earth.

• Founded by ex-government official Nobu Okada, Astroscale has won government backing in Japan, the U.S., and Britain as it develops technology to remove orbital junk, such as disused satellites and spent rockets, that is seen as a collision risk.

Follow the money: According to Responsible Statecraft, "Elon Musk's space company SpaceX recently secured a classified contract to build an extensive network of "spy satellites" for an undisclosed U.S. intelligence agency, with one source telling Reuters that "no one can hide" under the prospective network's reach."

• Almost 60 years later, the OST's vague language regarding military limitations in space, as space policy expert Michelle L.D. Hanlon and Greg Autry highlight, "leave more than enough room for interpretation to result in conflict."

• 2019, the Pentagon created the Space Force, an entirely new military branch "focused solely on pursuing superiority in the space domain."

• DefenseNews reports, "Russia, China, India, and the United States have tested anti-satellite missiles, and several major world powers have developed technology meant to disrupt signals in space."

Using AI, the Israeli army has marked tens of thousands of Gazans for assassination.

Inputs that matter: Named "Lavender," +972 reports that reliance on the machine's discovery resulted in essentially treating the AI's outputs "as if it were a human decision."

• "Formally, the Lavender system is designed to mark all suspected operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), including low-ranking ones, as potential bombing targets."

• "Moreover, the Israeli army systematically attacked the targeted individuals while they were in their homes — usually at night while their whole families were present."

• China is producing AI tech for the battlefield with an unmanned unit that can fire a 12.7 mm machine gun or rockets to support ground troops, operated as a swarm or individually.

• The U.S. and NATO also have AI-based battlefield technology.

The opportunity: Foreign Policy details "The United Nations (UN) adopted a U.S.-led resolution on artificial intelligence, marking what Washington says is a major step toward establishing a global baseline to regulate the rapidly developing technology."

• The UN proclaims, "An Algorithm Must Not Be in Full Control of Decisions Involving Killing."

• The resolution approved by the UN's first committee in November of 2023 "expresses concern about the possible negative consequences and impact of autonomous weapons systems on global security and regional and international stability, including the risk of an emerging arms race, and lowering the threshold for conflict and proliferation, including to non-State actors."

Zoom in: The Week details that the Israeli military has vehemently denied the claims. "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] outright rejects the claim regarding any policy to kill tens of thousands of people in their homes," it said in response to the allegations.

• According to Dr Elke Schwarz, a lecturer in political theory at Queen Mary, University of London, the deployment of AI-enabled weapon systems has profound implications for the future of warfare.

• "Technological innovation has always changed warcraft," said Andreas Kluth on Bloomberg in March.

Between the lines: Technology security is a more pressing defense challenge than lethal robots and AI targeting tools.

• Arstechnica reports, "A federal Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) has issued its report on what led to last summer's capture of hundreds of thousands of emails by Chinese hackers from cloud customers, including federal agencies."

• "The Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB), formed two years ago, comprises government and industry officials from entities including the Departments of Homeland Security, Justice, and Defense, the NSA, FBI, and others."

Follow the money: Axios reports, "Autonomous weapons are no longer science fiction - and they're becoming a top priority for major military powers."

• Anna Hehir of the Future of Life Institute says we need an international treaty to ban some of the most dangerous autonomous weapons and that we have a unique window now to do just that.

• However, the United States, Russia, and over 100 other states signed the UN Outer Space Treaty (OST) in 1967. Still, in 2019, the Pentagon created the Space Force, an entirely new military branch "focused solely on pursuing superiority in the space domain."

• Besides, weapons development is mainly done by private companies, not governments.

South Africa believes that "if we are to eradicate poverty, unemployment, and inequality in Africa, we need to eliminate energy poverty and guarantee energy security."

Inputs that matter: In the light of the continent's rich resources, including uranium, "South Africa intends on leveraging on the beneficiation of these resources to produce feedstock for Africa's nuclear power plants while developing its own Pebble Bed Modular Reactor technology as a strategic project.

• CarbonCredits reports, "Uranium prices have declined to $89 per pound, marking the sixth consecutive week of decreases since reaching a 16-year high of $106 in early February."

• According to ABC Australia, 57 companies are responsible for 80% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, with the biggest polluters being Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, and ConocoPhillips.

• All of these are fossil fuel producers under pressure by 2030 U.N. goals that open the door for renewed nuclear power demand.

The opportunity: The standard contract unit for uranium is 250 pounds of U3O8 and is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

• Major uranium-producing countries include Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia.

• Despite the decrease in futures trading prices to $88.50 per pound in New York, current prices still surpass last year's average.

• The International Energy Agency forecasts a demand of 200 million pounds by 2040, while Kazatomprom predicts a global shortfall of 21 million by 2030, rising to 147 million pounds by 2040.

Zoom in: Yale Environment 360 details, "In the U.S. and around the world, uranium mining is experiencing a revival as five producers in the U.S. are reactivating mines in Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and Arizona, all of which closed after the 2011 disaster at Fukushima sent the price of uranium plummeting."

• The A.P. reports, "The South African government announced plans in December 2023 to build new nuclear power stations to generate more electricity amid an energy crisis and regular blackouts in the continent's most advanced economy."

Between the lines: The Center for Public Integrity details that "Currently, South Africa's government is keeping a tight grip on roughly a quarter ton of nuclear explosives created by the apartheid regime there."

• "U.S. officials and experts say South Africa's nuclear explosives are among the most vulnerable in the world to theft by terrorists."

• Radio Free Europe reports, "Russia is among the five countries with the world's largest uranium resources, with 486,000 tons of uranium, the equivalent of 8% of the global supply."

• Canada and Australia are number 3 and 4 on the list of top uranium producers.

Follow the money: Reuters reports, "South Africans are wary of the government's nuclear program after a 9,600 MW nuclear deal with Russia."

• The Financial Times reports that Rosatom's chief executive, Ryan Collyer, is the head of Russia's state-owned nuclear giant. Collyer details that the joint nuclear venture will ensure "stable, affordable and environmentally friendly" power for the region.

• According to The Financial Times, Russia is using the program to forge new economic alliances and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, such as the capping of oil exports.

• Vox reports, "A coalition of Western countries, including the E.U., and the G7, implemented a "price cap" that allowed Russian oil sold below $60 a barrel—about $20 below the current market price—to use Western shipping infrastructure and insurance."