Banananomics: An Insider's Guide To Big Tech's Role In War

Iran's state media reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan on Friday, as Israel claims retaliatory strikes on Iran.

Inputs that matter: State media reported that air defense systems over several Iranian cities were activated after the country's official broadcaster said explosions were heard near Isfahan city, but Tehran indicated it had no plans for retaliation.

• Earlier Thursday, Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, addressed the press after the G7 meeting in Capri, Italy, explaining, "We're committed to Israel's security" and "We're also committed to de-escalating."

• Blinken concludes, "We are committed to achieving a Palestinian state with necessary guarantees for Israel."

• Iran is a member of BRICS, the competing intergovernmental organization to the G7.

The opportunity: Earlier this month, reports revealed that Israel is using an artificial intelligence-aided system called 'Lavender' to identify suspects in the Gaza Strip before targeting them with air strikes.

• "Formally, the Lavender system is designed to mark all suspected operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), including low-ranking ones, as potential bombing targets."

• According to software engineer and blogger Paul Biggar, however, one key detail on the methods employed by the Lavender system is the use of data from Meta's messaging platform, WhatsApp.

• Meta denies all allegations: "We have no information that these reports are accurate."

• The New York Times reports that Apple is required to pull WhatsApp from its China store.

Zoom in: The Israeli Ministry of Defense has a "landing zone" in Google Cloud to process data and access AI services.

• Project Nimbus is a $1.2 billion cloud computing and AI agreement between the Israeli government and two tech companies: Google and Amazon.

• Time said, "Google also gave the ministry a 15% discount on the original price of consulting fees."

• While Google denies military use of the platform, "the Israeli Ministry of Defense is a Google Cloud customer."

Between the lines: Foreign Policy details "The United Nations (UN) adopted a U.S.-led resolution on artificial intelligence, marking what Washington says is a major step toward establishing a global baseline to regulate the rapidly developing technology."

• The UN proclaims, "An Algorithm Must Not Be in Full Control of Decisions Involving Killing."

• The resolution approved by the UN's first committee in November of 2023 "expresses concern about the possible negative consequences and impact of autonomous weapons systems on global security and regional and international stability, including the risk of an emerging arms race, and lowering the threshold for conflict and proliferation, including to non-State actors."

Follow the money: The Intercept confirms that Google offers advanced artificial intelligence through its controversial "Project Nimbus" contract.

• The Israeli Finance Ministry announced in April 2021 the contract for a $1.2 billion cloud computing system jointly built by Google and Amazon.

• "The former head of Security for Google Enterprise—who now heads Oracle's Israel branch—has publicly argued that one of Nimbus's goals is preventing the German government from requesting data on the Israel Defence Forces for the International Criminal Court," said Jack Poulson, director of the watchdog group Tech Inquiry.

In a vote of 12 in favor, the U.S. used its veto power to prevent Palestine from becoming a full member of the United Nations (U.N.).

Inputs that matter: For a draft resolution to pass, the Council must have at least nine members in favor, and none of its permanent members – China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States – use their veto power.

• Palestine has been a Permanent Observer at the U.N. since 2012, before which it was an observer in the U.N. General Assembly.

The opportunity: Meanwhile, Argentina has submitted a request for the country to become a "global partner" of NATO.

• President Javier Milei has repeatedly said he wants to protect his country's sovereignty claim on the Falkland Islands.

• In January, U.K. Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron met with the Argentine President to discuss the islands' future. According to the Foreign Office, "The U.K. position and ongoing support for the Falkland Islanders' right to self-determination remains unchanged."

• On Thursday, Defense Minister Luis Alfonso Petri submitted the formal request. He said on X: "I met with the Deputy Secretary General of NATO Geoana. I transmitted a letter of intent to him, which contains a request from Argentina to become a global partner of this organization."

Zoom in: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 and is a group of 32 countries from Europe and North America that exists to protect the people and territory of its members.

• Originally meant as collective security against the Soviet Union, NATO regards an attack on one member as an attack on all.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attended the recent G7 summit that discussed sanctions on Iran.

• Colombia is currently NATO's only partner country in Latin America.

• Any decision on a formal partnership would require consensus by all 32 Allies.

Between the lines: NATO Allies agreed at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of NATO, noting that its next step would be to apply to the Membership Action Plan (MAP).

• NATO recently declared, "The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security and peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area."

• "Today, relations between NATO and Russia are at their lowest point since the Cold War."

Follow the money: Newsweek states, "The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, has been at the heart of tensions between NATO and China. China hasn't officially backed Russia's war in Ukraine but has provided economic assistance to the Kremlin."

• The most recent partnership, AUKUS, is a trilateral security agreement for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to assist Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

• Created in 2021, the group is under the close eye of China, which worries the group will become a NATO for the Pacific.

The FBI says Chinese hackers are preparing to launch an attack on U.S. infrastructure.

Inputs that matter: "The PRC [People's Republic of China] has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage and that it plans to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America's will to resist."

• FBI Director Wray said that the Chinese have successfully gained access to companies throughout the U.S. in energy, telecommunications, and water and have targeted 23 pipeline operators.

The opportunity: Hackers linked to the Chinese government are waiting for the right moment to "deal a devastating blow" to U.S. critical infrastructure, Wray said Thursday.

• Voice of America reports, "Multiple U.S. agencies, led by the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, warned in February that hackers associated with a Chinese-linked group known as Volt Typhoon had been hiding in key computer systems and networks for at least five years."

Zoom in: A spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said earlier this week that "Volt Typhoon" was not part of China's government but part of a criminal ransomware group.

• Security researchers with Microsoft and Google have connected "Volt Typhoon" to China.

Between the lines: While all countries use computer hacking to gather intelligence, the concern is state-sponsored groups working toward digital sabotage.

• Microsoft warned last year that "Volt Typhoon" was "pursuing development of capabilities that could disrupt critical communications infrastructure between the United States and Asia region during future crises."

• China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, warns the Philippines, "Attempts to bring in external forces to safeguard its so-called security will only lead to greater insecurity for itself."

• DefenseNews reports that Japan and the U.S. "will improve their command-and-control systems, form an industrial council to build weapons, network their missile defense systems with Australia's, and start a joint exercise with the United Kingdom."

Follow the money: By disrupting communications between the U.S. and their Asian allies at will, China has an insurance policy against NATO involvement in the region.

• Wray believes the ultimate goal of China is to deter the U.S. and its allies from defending Taiwan.