Banananomics: Proxy Wars and Olympics

Chinese weapons were found in Gaza while Canada, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, as well as the Japanese company Itochu Corporation, pulled their support of Israel.

Inputs that matter: The war between Israel and Hamas has revealed extensive Chinese support for Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups that the U.S. and Israel consider terrorist organizations, strategic analyst Guermantes Lailari told the Washington Times.

• Chinese military technology also has been found in missiles used by other anti-Israel Iran-backed regional groups such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi Shiite militia groups, he said.

The opportunity: Israel faces growing isolation over the deaths of six foreign aid workers and a Palestinian driver who were helping deliver desperately needed food to isolated and starving residents.

• Germany and the U.S. are the biggest suppliers of arms to Israel.

• Washington's blanket support for Israel will change if Israel doesn't start listening to U.S. demands about protecting civilians in Gaza and allowing aid into the Palestinian enclave, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said to The Washington Post.

• Article 7 of the U.N. arms trade treaty requires a risk assessment for all weapons transfers. It prohibits exports with an overriding risk that the weapons could be used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law (the law of armed conflict).

Zoom in: "The Hague court of appeal that ordered the Dutch government to suspend arms exports to Israel relied on reports from Amnesty International and the U.N. when it listed multiple examples of apparent violations of the law of armed conflict in Gaza," reports The Conversation.

• "On March 1, Nicaragua instituted proceedings before the I.C.J. against Germany (the second-biggest arms exporter to Israel), in part alleging that it is violating article 1 of the Geneva conventions due to its support for Israel."

• Article 1 of the Geneva Conventions requires states to "ensure respect" for international humanitarian law.

Between the lines: The Times of Israel reports, "A new diplomatic crisis between Poland and Israel has erupted following the death of a Polish aid worker in Gaza."

• "The deadly strike in Gaza reignited tensions between the two nations that have seen a number of diplomatic rows over the past years, notably on Holocaust history."

Follow the money: Neither Israel or Palestinen groups are part of the G7 or BRICS intergovernmental organizations.

• G7 countries such as the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, along with the E.U., are in a power struggle with BRICS nations that include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the U.A.E.

• Iran and China are backing Hamas, while the U.S., U.K., and Germany continue to support Israel.

• However, Reuters said, "Egyptian and Qatari efforts, backed by the United States, have so far failed to achieve a ceasefire."

Back-to-back earthquakes rock Taiwan and Japan as talks between China and the U.S. continue.

Inputs that matter: The Independent reports, "At least nine people were killed and more than 900 injured when Taiwan's biggest earthquake in 25 years rocked the island during the morning rush hour, prompting authorities to issue tsunami warnings."

• While the disaster is tragic, it heightens the issue of Taiwanese independence.

• Pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate (William) Lai Ching-te won Taiwan's presidential election with 40% of the votes.

• China's foreign ministry and embassies also criticized the government for congratulating Lai on his victory.

The opportunity: BRICS nations like China compete with the G7, including Japan and the U.S.

• According to Reuters, "China claims democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory and also claims the right to speak for it on the international stage, to the fury of Taipei given Beijing's communist government has never ruled the island and has no say in how it chooses its leaders."

• Japan's prime minister, Fumio Kishida, said he was "deeply saddened" by the earthquake and offered "to provide any assistance necessary."

• China has expressed condolences to Taiwan and offered aid to Taiwan.

Zoom in: As the U.S. and China discuss economic partnership, U.S. President Joe Biden quickly reaffirmed that the U.S. did not support Taiwanese independence.

• During the call between Biden and Xi, "The Chinese leader warned again that the "Taiwan issue" is an "insurmountable red line" in bilateral ties.

• In the call, Biden emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

Between the lines: Taiwan's political drift away from mainland China remains a source of conflict risk.

• "Beijing removed tariffs and blocked imports of certain Taiwanese food exports in the lead-up to the election, so further punitive steps could be announced."

Follow the money: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday she would not rule out taking additional steps to protect U.S. clean energy industries from Chinese competition."

• However, China's CATL, the world's largest maker of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), has already partnered with Ford, is in talks with G.M., and is working with Tesla.

• Yellen said ahead of her trip that China's subsidizing clean energy and industrial overcapacity "hurts American firms and workers, as well as firms and workers around the world."

• She stopped short of declaring that the U.S. could implement new tariffs.

Reuters reports that French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that he had no doubt Russia would malevolently target the Paris Olympics this summer, in comments that underline the fraught geopolitical backdrop to the games.

Inputs that matter: As French police removed dozens of homeless migrants from the forecourt of Paris City Hall, President Macron voices concerns over Russia.

• In response, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters: "Relations have now slipped to the level of direct confrontation."

• The two proxy wars between G7 and BRICS, which include Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's conflict with Hamas, will coincide with the 2024 Summer Olympics.

• Despite the conflict in Gaza, Palestinians are sending 170 people to coach and compete in the games.

The opportunity: Coach Guy Luzon says Israel football is ready for the Paris Olympics, "Our ambition is to do well in the group stages, then the quarter-finals and then, in the end, we want to reach the podium. Of course we've got a tough draw, but we will be ready."

• Jacobin reports, "The International Olympic Committee has declined to curtail Israel's involvement in the 2024 games and has placed half-hearted limits on Russia."

• Last fall, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced it would ban the Russian Olympic Committee from attending the Paris Games.

• However, it stopped short of blocking the participation of Russian athletes — something the IOC has done in the past in cases like that of apartheid South Africa.

Zoom in: In 1992, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) moved to renew the tradition of the sacred truce associated with the ancient Olympics. 

• The Olympic truce calls for the cessation of hostilities between warring nations during the Olympic Games and beyond.

• During the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, the South and North Korean delegations marched into the stadium together under the single flag of the Korean peninsula.

Between the lines: The IOC banned Abdul-Rashid Sadulayev, the two-time Olympic freestyle wrestling champion and captain of the Russian wrestling team, from competing a few days before the licensing tournament in Baku because he supported Russia against Ukraine.

• Azerbaijan, on the other hand, can qualify for the Olympic Games in Paris.

Follow the money: Despite the controversy, the Olympic sponsorship includes many big-name companies.

• For example, Big Tech participants include Salesforce, Airbnb, Alibaba, and Intel.

• Auto giant Toyota is a sponsor, along with tire maker Bridgestone.

• Procter and Gamble, Coke Cola, and Deloitte are also included.