Banananomics: Spy Games And Superior Statecraft

The U.S. recently purchased 81 obsolete Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, with intentions to supply them to Ukraine.

Inputs that matter: It seems strange that the U.S. government buys aircraft from the 1970s and 1980s for a nation that had just received shipments of the latest military technology.

• Instead, such a purchase looks more like money laundering for a spy game.

• Meanwhile, the BBC reports that a senior Islamic State commander who had a $5m (£4m) U.S. bounty on his head has been killed by troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

The opportunity: The International Criminal Court (ICC) is being warned by members of Congress in both parties that arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials will be met with U.S. retaliation.

• The White House declined to comment on Netanyahu's call with Biden but said, "The ICC has no jurisdiction in this situation, and we do not support its investigation."

• The ICC has been investigating allegations of war crimes against both the Israeli military and Palestinian militia groups dating back to 2014.

Zoom in: GRU Unit 29155 is a Russian spy organization under Vladimir Putin that is responsible for poisoning enemies of the Kremlin and blowing up materiel stored in Czechia and Bulgaria.

• Today, the Czech Intelligence Center for Counter-Terrorism and Organized Crime has released the findings of a years-long investigation into Unit 29155's role in destroying two Czech government-run weapons and ammunition depots in 2014 in Czechia. 

• These attacks, which resulted in Prague's expulsion of 18 Russian intelligence officers operating in the country under diplomatic cover, were conducted with explosive devices emplaced by Unit 29155's most recognizable operatives: Alexander Mishkin, 44, and Anatoly Chepiga, 45.

• Both would gain international notoriety for trying to murder Sergei Skripal, a GRU officer turned British double agent, along with his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury, England, in 2018, with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok.

Between the lines: According to the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta will recognize Palestinian statehood by the end of May.

• Israel subsequently accused the four countries of offering a "prize for terrorism" that would reduce the chances of a negotiated resolution to the Gaza conflict.

• Since 1988, 139 out of 193 United Nations member states have recognized Palestinian statehood.

Follow the money: Thousands of videos allegedly showing an Indian Member of Parliament (MP), Prajwal Revanna, sexually abusing women have circulated in the southern state of Karnataka, sparking outrage.

• The MP belongs to the Janata Dal (Secular), an ally of PM Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party.

• His father, HD Revanna, a legislator in the Karnataka state assembly, is also accused in the police complaint lodged by a former family employee.

• On Monday, the JD(S) announced suspending Prajwal Revanna.

The U.S. is racing with China and Russia to build hypersonic missiles that can avoid modern missile defenses and tracking sensors.

Inputs that matter: Tensions with NATO come from a 40-year U.S. policy that sought to play down or dismiss threats posed by China under the idea that trade and engagement would lead to liberalization and modifications to the communist system.

• Instead, China has reverted to orthodox Marxist-Leninist policies under Chinese President Xi Jinping's national rejuvenation policies.

The opportunity: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have united in challenging the US-led G7, which Beijing says is trying to contain its development.

• Meanwhile, Austria calls for fresh efforts to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in weapons systems that could create "killer robots" as it hosted a conference to revive largely stalled discussions on the issue.

• "It is so important to act and to act very fast," Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, told a panel discussion at the conference.

• "This is the Oppenheimer Moment of our generation," said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, referencing J. Robert Oppenheimer, who helped invent the atomic bomb in 1945 before going on to advocate for controls over the spread of nuclear arms.

Zoom in: According to the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, Xi will begin his five-day trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary on May 5.

• President Emmanuel Macron aims to deepen his personal connection with Xi during his two-day visit to France. 

• He appeals to the Chinese leader to urge Vladimir Putin to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

• According to University of Singapore political science professor Chong Ja Ian, this trip "is an effort to try to pull at parts of Europe that Xi feels might be more sympathetic to his position."

• Xi's trip comes as the E.U. steadily forges a more unified voice with Washington, opposing China's capacity for cheap exports and perceived national security risks.

Between the lines: Defense companies and startups are lining up for military contracts to create a new generation of space weaponry and adjacent tech, including space vehicles, hypersonic rockets, and extensive surveillance and communications projects.

• North Korea recently launched a spy satellite and is planning to launch more.

• China is "developing the counter-space capabilities to threaten U.S. and allied satellites and developing sophisticated launch capabilities that are moving much more toward reusable launch vehicles."

• DefenseNews reports, "Russia, China, India, and the United States have tested anti-satellite missiles, and several major world powers have developed technology meant to disrupt signals in space."

• U.S. Space Force General Chance Saltzman declares, "If we do not have space, we lose."

Follow the money: French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that France's nuclear deterrent might "contribute more to the defense of European soil."

• French doctrine states that nuclear deterrence serves France's "vital interests."

• The U.S. nuclear shield under NATO protects most E.U. countries.

• Under NATO, an attack on one member country assures that all others under the agreement will come to its aid.

Banananomics official swag store is open. A place to buy Banananomics merchandise, such as:

• Coffee Mugs

• T-Shirts

• Hoodies

• Stickers

• Hats

• Notebooks

As always, we appreciate your support. International shipping is available.