Banananomics: Unexpected Space Wars Now Exposing GPS Vulnerabilities

Attacks against GPS systems persist in the Baltic Sea region, which includes Germany, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Inputs that matter: Tens of thousands of planes flying in the region have reported problems with their navigation systems in recent months amid widespread jamming attacks, which can make GPS inoperable.

• As the attacks have grown, Russia has increasingly been blamed, with open-source researchers tracking the source to Russian regions such as Kaliningrad.

• The jamming in the Baltic region, first spotted in early 2022, is not the biggest concern.

• Instead, signal spoofing is the greatest threat.

• DefenseNews reports that Russia, China, India, the United States, and several major world powers have developed technology to disrupt space signals.

The opportunity: "It cannot be ruled out that this jamming is a form of hybrid warfare to create uncertainty and unrest," Jimmie Adamsson, the chief of public affairs for the Swedish Navy, tells WIRED.

• Earlier this month, more than 15,000 planes had their locations spoofed to Beirut Airport, according to data Figuet shared with WIRED.

• The data shows that more than 10,000 were spoofed to Cairo Airport, while more than 2,000 had their locations shown in Yaroslavl, Russia. 

• A separate analysis from geospatial intelligence company Geollect shared with WIRED shows that on April 16, around 55 ships broadcast their location over the main runway at Simferopol International Airport in Crimea, Ukraine.

Zoom in: The New York Times reports, "The United States and China are locked in a new race, in space and on Earth, over a fundamental resource: time itself. And the United States is losing."

• "Global positioning satellites serve as clocks in the sky, and their signals have become fundamental to the global economy."

• "But those services are increasingly vulnerable as space is rapidly militarized and satellite signals are attacked on Earth."

• "Russia, China, India, and the United States have tested anti-satellite missiles, and several major world powers have developed technology meant to disrupt signals in space."

Between the lines: According to SpaceNews, "While GPS was once the undisputed king of satnav, it now has a growing list of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) competitors – from China's BeiDou to the European Union's Galileo, Russia's GLONASS and even India's regional system, NavIC."

• The National Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Advisory Board (PNTAB) warned that "GPS's capabilities are now substantially inferior to those of China's BeiDou."

• It urged the U.S. to regain PNT leadership over the next decade.

• While China and the EU have been investing heavily in their GNSS systems, the U.S. military is only making modest improvements to GPS. 

Follow the money: The U.S. is concerned that China could use BeiDou as a platform for conducting espionage and other malicious activities inside these countries.

• In March, Reuters reported that the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) in 2021 awarded SpaceX a $1.8 billion contract for the classified project, a planned network of hundreds of satellites.

• While this network will be separate from SpaceX's Starlink Internet constellation, the National Reconnaissance Office contract is leveraging SpaceX's capability to put many Starlink satellites into orbit with its existing manufacturing facilities and the reusable Falcon 9 rocket.

"We will enter Rafah, and we don't care about the court in The Hague; the court is anti-Semitic," explains Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Inputs that matter: "This will be the first time that a democratic country, which is fighting for its life according to all the rules of international law, is accused of war crimes," Netanyahu concludes.

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel to push for a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, saying "the time is now" for an agreement that would free hostages and bring a pause in the nearly seven months of war in Gaza.

• Meanwhile, a Texas city devastated by flooding after Hurricane Harvey is forcing recipients of financial aid to sign a pledge not to boycott Israel.

• The city's attorney said he was following a state law introduced in May that prohibits public bodies from giving contracts to companies that boycott Israel.

The opportunity: Ukraine will become a NATO member subject to reforms after the war, the military alliance's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Monday.

• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its preliminary ruling on Tuesday, saying it would not implement emergency measures to stop or limit Germany from providing weapons and other assistance to Israel for the conflict with militant-Islamist Hamas in Gaza.

• Nicaragua had brought the charges, claiming that Germany's actions breached the 1948 Genocide Convention by allowing violations of international humanitarian law in the Palestinian territory.

• Nicaragua,  a country that has historic ties with the Palestinian people through migration, has requested several provisional measures against Germany.

Zoom in: New York City Hall has informed CBS News that there is evidence suggesting the presence of the wife of a known terrorist among the protestors on the Columbia University campus.

• Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has sentenced 29-year-old fitness instructor Manahel al-Otaibi to 11 years in jail because of her choice of clothing and women's rights advocacy.

Between the lines: The Houthis pledged in mid-March to extend missile attacks to include ships in the Indian Ocean diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.

• On April 24, the Houthis claimed to have targeted MSC Veracruz (IMO: 9287924), which was traveling via the Cape of Good Hope to Mina Khalifa/Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

• "This incident means that the threat has changed, particularly for Israeli ships or those linked to the U.K. or the U.S. that are operating within the assessed weapons range within the Indian Ocean," said EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly.

• Iran is known to be supplying the Houthis with weaponry and equipment.

Follow the money: The war in Gaza and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have a tremendous impact on global oil.

• A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside Russia has left the Kremlin racing to defend its territory.

• Moscow has scaled back its fuel exports to near-historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared to more than 844,000 during the same week in 2023.

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