This Floundering Business Was My Absolute Lowest

5. Starting too soon after the previous exit

Almost immediately after selling a company, I began Estimand, an attempt at a Causal AI provider. Instead of testing the market, I let my ego blind me to raising funds and building a product. The result was zero revenue, lost savings, and damage to many relationships.

4. Holding on too long

After four attempts at product-market fit, we were out of money. That's no problem; I will just use personal funds to continue. Believing that a market would be discovered soon, I kept pouring money into the company and trying different frames, but none worked.

3. The wrong team

I needed a highly skilled technology team to build Causal AI, so I recruited from major companies. The problem was that my team of co-founders only wanted to be employees. No one was truly committed to Estimand but myself.

2. Business over family

Even facing numerous warning signs, I was so committed to building this business that nothing else mattered. It was not until I was separated from my wife and alone in an Airbnb that I wrote out the lessons learned from this self-induced nightmare.

1. Unsolvable problem

Sometimes, a problem has no solution. For a new AI product up against major players, finding a market is almost impossible. Instead of selling the technology to someone else or accepting sunk costs, I kept trying to find an answer.

Hope this helps

- Todd

I desire to help companies scale with investment, advice, and support. If you need help, have a question, or are seeking funding, email me at [email protected].